“Prevention is better than cure”…but if you cannot prevent it the best thing to do is know how to cure it. Nothing was more true than our last global pandemic known as “covid”. However there is a new threat on the horizon. “Disease X” a byproduct of “Virus X” is expected to be thrust on humanity.
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), “Disease X represents the knowledge that a serious international epidemic could be caused by a pathogen currently unknown to cause human disease.”1
“It might sound like science fiction, but Disease X is something we must prepare for.”2
Richard Hatchett, chief executive officer (CEO) of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), said about Disease X
In a list of high priority diseases that the WHO considers in terms of research and development, Disease X hold a position among known diseases such as Ebola, Zika, and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).1 In fact, unexpected outbreaks of infectious disease (Disease X) have repeatedly rocked the medical confidence and have taken the medical world by surprise.3
There are industry experts that had previously noted that COVID-19, which was caused by severe acute respiratory coronavirus virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), met the standards to be considered the first Disease X,4 . While some authors have called Zika a Disease X.5 There is possibility is that COVID-19 (and other recent pandemics) might have been milder of softer version of what will eventually be the most prominent Disease X.
Disease X is supposed to be caused by a “pathogen X.” Such a pathogen is expected to be a zoonosis, most likely an RNA virus, emerging from an area where the right mix of risk factors highly promotes the risk for sustained transmission.6
Some have criticized the WHO for under-reacting on pandemics such as the 2014 Ebola pandemic,7 as all organizations with capped funds and limited political power, the WHO usually fails to deliver adequate policy when it comes to timely and strong acts to reduce the spread of transmissible diseases.8
A global study aimed at discovering the responsibility for the 2014 Ebola outbreak, concluded that while the WHO might have been partly to blame, it’s also the lacks cooperation from governments and delayed funding likely aggravates the situation.7
Scientists have stated that although the COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on the world population, and global economy, as soon as it became contained, healthcare systems are able to go back to normal operating procedures. In future, politicians may use weak economic recovery from covid as an excuse to delay funding for future epidemic preparation, as a result failing to produce timely effective measures.8
Similarly, while emerging zoonotic pathogens are always a possible threat that needs to be monitored, the greater possibility of an engineered pandemic pathogen also cannot be ignored.9 The release of such pathogens, either through laboratory accidents or as acts of bioterrorism, might lead to disastrous consequences from Disease X. The global catastrophic risk is evident.10
Governments and global organizations need to earmark significant funding for the surveillance of, research into, and treatment of emerging potential pathogens. Pathogens which can become pandemic agents that could cause Disease X.8
Despite the dark future outlook, future steps can be taken to stop the progression of potential Disease X and to reduce the spread and damage of Disease X by properly and preemptively preparing for it.
7 Steps to Prepare for Disease X
(1) Develop international guidelines to control bioterrorism. Bioterrorism attacks can result in an epidemic, for example, if Ebola or Lassa viruses were used as biological agents.
(2) Academics consultation and advice should be sought in a timely way without any political involvement.
(3) Immediate and appropriate travel restrictions including airport screening should be implemented globally to contain the spread of pathogen X across borders.
(4) World’s scientists, clinicians, and infectious disease experts, must collaborative actively to investigate, control, and eliminate the disease X in a timely way.
(5) Widespread testing and aggressive contact tracing can effectively contain the outbreak.
(6) Timely investments to accelerate the development, availability, and approval of medical countermeasures (like diagnostics, vaccines, and clinical trials) required before and during the pandemic.
(7) Active surveillance of virus laboratories to avoid a potential leaks of a new virus X.
A One Health approach has also been proposed that provides a complete way to address the underlying issues for the spread of Disease X: bridging institutional gaps, defining priority risk areas and pathogens, and emphasizing supposed risk factors for subsequent events involving emerging and re-emerging infectious disease pathogens.11
The COVID-19 pandemic was not the first to virus to wreak havoc on the world and it will certainly not be the last. Knowing this truth, we must learn from the past to prepare for the future. To prevent and contain the next virus X outbreak as a global society.
