Covered in an intense heat wave, African farmers are continually forced to admit that their precious commodity, cocoa beans, are no longer growing as they should to produce a yield. This will become a major concern for the world’s leading chocolate producers.
According to the cocao farmers in the region “The beans are turning black,” near plantations near Agboville, nearly 45 miles from the economic capital Abidjan of Ivory Coast.
In fact the farmers tell the media reporters that “They are not growing properly because of the heat.”
Devastating heat
The heat wave in the area is so strong that the leaves on the trees which usually provide shade for the pods, are drying and falling off the trees.
This allows direct sunlight to hit the cocoa pods, drying them up and blackening them. They are no longer able to grow to maturity to be harvested.
This is a growing concern in the region, and around the world, not just with cocoa beans but also with coffee beans and other plants that are sensitive when exposed to more heat than usual.
The potential of more heat waves around the world is becoming a concern as drought threatens the global economy.
It is so hot that even the farmers themselves cannot work during the days and can only tend o the plants in the mornings.
This leaves plenty of time for plants to burn in the direct sun while giving farmers plenty of spare time to dwell on future losses and how to compensate to survive.
According to one farmer ‘normally in the off season we get up to a tonne, but this year we expect just 300 kilograms (660 pounds)’.
Weather Fluctuations
Last year’s heavy rains in the region have resulted into higher temperatures, particularly from January to March, as the forecast adjusts to seasonal weather fluctuations.
These fluctuations have devastated the cocoa crop, which accounts for nearly 45 percent of global production.
The thermometer reached a record 41 degrees Celsius or 106 Fahrenheit at Dimbrokro in central Ivory Coast in February, confirmed Daouda Konate, who is Head of the National Weather Agency Sodexam.
Normal temperatures for that time of year would be 35C-36C (95-97F), Konate added.
Ivory Coast has not been alone in battling the hot weather over the region or even around the world.
In Mali, the town of Kayes, which is located in the southwest region of Africa, is literally suffocated under 48.5C (119F) in early April with temperatures only expected to rise.
Long-lasting and intense periods of heat will often stress plants to the point of preventing harvest, said agronomist Siaka Kone, head of the higher school of agronomy in the Ivorian capital Yamoussoukro.
Lack of Water
“The quantities of water available will not be sufficient for proper growth and there will be no blossom. Without flowers … no fruit,” Kone added.
The problem with high heat is not just the air. Soil temperatures increase in line with air temperatures leading to greater water evaporation, noted Kone.
Agriculture represents over 25% of Ivory Coast’s GDP and provides half of all employment to its struggling population.
Africa’s Heat Trend
Any reduction in Agriculture for the region could potentially introduce devastating effects from lack of income to famine to disease.
“This year is different because of El Niño”, said Daouda Konate. Konate was recently appointed the first African vice-president of the UN’s World Meteorology Organization.
El Niño is a natural weather phenomenon which pushes up the temperature of a large part of the South Pacific.
“Human activity: what we consume and our industry,” only make matters worse, said Nahounou Pierre Lautti Daleba, a geo-economist and environmental activist.
Heat Disparity
Africa has emitted only seven percent of global greenhouse gases since the mid-19th century.
This is according to the UN climate change panel (IPCC), however temperatures have risen 1.4°C across Africa against 1.1 percent globally.
So africa as a whole is emitting far less than other parts of the world, but taking the brunt of temperature increases compared to those areas emitting the most greenhouse gases.
In spite of the lower than average greenhouse gas emissions, Ivory Coast is still aiming to cut emissions by more than 30 percent.
As well as putting enforcement in place to preserve forests after losing 90 percent since 1960 due to deforestation and urbanization.
Future Forecasts
According to government forecasts, climate change could lead to annual GDP losses of 3-4.5 percent leading up to 2030.
Farmers “are not prepared for heat waves”, which are becoming repetitive, said Nahounou Pierre Lautti Daleba.
But there are ways to adapt according to Kone, who recommends water retention projects, as well as not pulling up vegetation which provides shade against the sun.
Abidjan’s rapid urbanization tied with its surging population of six million, has made it even more difficult to cope with weather trends.
“Over the last 10 years the city of Abidjan has seen an increase in the number and scale of heat waves,” said Felix Houphouet-Boigny university researcher Maimouna Ymba in a Red Cross report.
When we combine human activity, with deforestation we find what is created are “islands of urban heat”.
These urban heat zones can see soil temperatures rise by 5-10 percent above the surrounding areas, which can be devastating for farmers trying to grow crops.
The future of global food security will rely heavily on innovative ways to keep harvests producing yields in spite of the weather trends predicting higher heat and less rain.
