US intelligence has information of discussions between Islamic terror groups to share and trade weaponry, worrying development that threatens to further destabilize an already violent region.

Talks between Houthis in Yemen to provide weapons to the Somali militant group al-Shabaab, has come to light by US intelligence officials.

Terrorism Trend

American Intelligence officials describe the trend of both increasing Islamic terrorism in the region along with partnering terror groups as a very concerning development.

A development that threatens global and regional security in Africa while increasing the lawlessness creating a potential for renewed war between nations.

Officials are now compiling evidence that Houthi weapons have been already been delivered to Somalia rebel groups.

Intelligence groups are attempting to trace the weapons origination to Iran, which already provides military and financial support to the Houthis.

US Intelligence has been warning intelligence organizations from other countries in the region about this possible cooperation.

African Response

As a result, African countries have begun to proactively address the concerns with the US to better understand the risks and get more information on how to prevent further escalation.

Although the two groups represent different factions under Islam, they can work in unison for the ultimate goal of attempting to destroy Israel while destabilizing non-islamic African nations.

The alliance for the two groups, is not a natural amalgamation but islamic terror groups often work together against non-islamic interests.

The Houthis are Zaydi Shiites, and al-Shabaab which are Sunni Muslims have traditionally been deeply ideologically opposed to this Shiism of Islam. 

Although the partnership is not considered “natural” there are some strategic synergies between the terror alliance.

The two islamic terror groups are also separated by a single body of water, known as the Gulf of Aden, and both terror groups count the United States and Israel as their top enemies.

Marriage of Convenience

The US intelligence services have raises alarms that the possibility of this “marriage of convenience” could actually make things worse both within Somalia, throughout Africa, in the Red Sea, and in the Gulf of Aden.

This is where the Houthis have launched regular attacks on commercial shipping and US military assets since the war in Gaza began.

A potential deal between the two terror groups could offer a new revenue stream for the Houthis, at a time when there are signs that the group’s primary financier, Iran, has some concerns about the group’s attack strategy.

A senior US Intelligence official concluded that “being able to sell some weapons would bring the [Houthis] much needed income”

For al-Shabaab, the access to new weaponry could provide a new strategy of war in Africa and an ability to further terrorize innocent Africans.

Weaponry such military drones which are far more sophisticated than their current arsenal and could offer the group the ability to strike more specialized targets.

In recent years routine black market smuggling of both small arms and commercial weoponary between different groups in Yemen and Somalia has occurred for years.

But a verified and legitimate weapons agreement between the two islamic terror groups would signify a formal partnership according to US officials.

With what the Houthis provide in terms of military weapons, there’s likely an increased but limited opportunity for al-Shabaab to fire directly at American assets throughout the region.

Throughout the horn of Africa there are pockets which are controlled by an increasingly powerful branch of ISIS. 

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No Loyalty Among Terror Groups

Al-Shabaab is often fighting other islamic terror group, along with fighting government forces to control territory.

This constant fight for Al-Shabaab continually limits its presence and freedom to maneuver throughout the region.

Al-Shabaab views the internationally recognized government of Somalia as a puppet of the United States.

The US has just under 500 US troops stationed in Somalia, according to a US intelligence sources. 

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Counterterrorism

The American military has continued to carry out counterterrorism strikes against both al-Shabaab and ISIS targets in Somalia as it attempts to assist its African nation allies.

One major concern for US intelligence officials moving forward is the degree of involvement Islamic countries such as Iran, Qatar and Turkey might have in these weapons sharing arrangement.

There is direct evidence that Turkey is sending Syrian mercenaries to Africa, but US officials are still looking for evidence that Iran is working with the terror groups directly in funding or arming.

It fits the pattern of Islamic regimes that secretly support Islamic terror groups to widen the front against the US and the west by directly or indirectly providing arms to proxy groups.

The Houthis are also one of the most independent-minded of the Iran-aligned islamic terror groups and Tehran exercises arguably the least amount of control over them.

Iran has sought broad management of the war in Gaza, calibrating its response to extract revenge against US and Israel without allowing itself to formally spiral into direct conflict.

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“It would be the clearest sign that two organizations that are, ideologically, diametrically opposed to one another, that they prioritized something they have in common, which is hostility towards [the United States & Israel]. It would be very significant because it shows there is a level of pragmatism in both organizations.”

– Christopher Anzalone, Professor at Marine Corps University’s Middle East Studies Department

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Peace between Yemen and Saudi Arabia

Any form of military cooperation between the Houthis and al-Shabaab could also undermine an informal, and fragile, ceasefire between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia that has held since 2022.

American and UN officials still have a strong interest in supporting the roadmap process in Yemen, but outline this sort of arms trafficking between the Houthis and al-Shabaab would certainly complicate and undermine that peace efforts.

Intelligence officials conclude, that although they are not sure exactly what types of weapons the Houthis might provide to al-Shabaab, it could definitely become a further catalyst for war.

Currently, the Somali Islamic terror group generally only has access to small rockets, mortars, and homemade IEDs that it has used in its fight against the Somali government.

The Houthis, by comparison, have weaponized drones, including underwater drones and long range rocket launchers as well as short-range ballistic missiles.

There is a general sense by global intelligence officials that this type of weapons deal between the two terror groups would cover the larger arms bigger than just rockets and mortars, but beyond this information, the intelligence is still undetermined.